David Farrar has up his 20 predictions for 2020 -- which is worth looking at is it is how the elite think. David was (and probably is) the main pollster used by the National Party in the last couple of elections, when the party got close to a plurality. Not quite, though... which is why (when the Maori Party imploded) three parties were able to stitch up a majority and then govern.
Where I think David has it wrong is that three of the four parties in parliament -- National, Labour and the Greens -- are liberal, globalist and social democratic. There is a political monoculture that is being challenged as times are getting tougher by older calls to blood and soil. The fourth party we have -- NZ First -- should be for such, but instead is about having power and prestige. We have an election this year: so eleven months out, some predictions.
- NZ First is toast. They won't get over the 5% threshold in the election.
- The New Conservatives will get a greater percentage of votes than NZ First but won't make the threshold either
- The cannibalism of the right vote by New Conservatives will decrease National's vote just sufficiently so that a Labour/Green coalition retains power. They will, however, be hated by provincial New Zealand.
- The coalition will increase censorship of social media and the internet.
- New Zealand will officially enter a recession: in reality we are still in the long depression that started with the global financial crisis.
- There will be at least one major media bankruptcy (noting that MediaWorks is already trying to sell TV3 because free to air TV is now losing money.
- The revival of the Church will strengthen but won't make the press.
Concerning the last comment: consider Adam's roundup of the year. He's returned to the Catholics and to Christ. I care more that he returned to Christ than the fact that church as a fair number of superstitions and logical errors.
I am grateful that I am intelligent enough and able to think for myself that I can make those right choices and follow through on them. How hideous it must be to be an emotionally stunted individual who believes in the dogma and propaganda of the day. Being able to see through the bullshit is fundamental to living a good life. At times I could even come to pity chronic leftists. But I don’t, because they hate us and want to see us dead.
I am grateful that I have gone back to Church. I wouldn’t have taken this step if my marriage hadn’t fallen apart, so clouds and silver linings and all that. I am also grateful that I was raised a Catholic and not some nonsensical protestant heresy. I find the proper ritual of the Catholic mass to be comforting. It is ceremony and a connection with our ancestors. I dig the smell of incense in the morning.
I could make a slew of predictions internationally, but instead I should offer a warning. New Zealand is not without its dangers. Today I'm inside, as the air tastes of ash and is tinged yellow, because Coastal Australia is on fire. We live on a geologically recent (read highly unstable) land, and our tolerance of those who flee the chaos of their nation but bring the policies that cause it with them is diminishing.
I expect it to be low, quite low, by November. If we are in a frank depression, my predictions above will be wrong, and we could have a nationalist government. That may be better for our nation than the global rainbow that wants to dissolve all that is good, beautiful, honourable, and true.