We are informed by Jacinda, who is the big sister we are mandated to worship, that there will not be a decision on lockdown until April 20th. I'm writing this a week earlier, starting this week in reaction in a time when COVID is changing us. The crisis is upon us.
Let’s be clear: Nobody is “safe” from COVID-19. Being white or living in a rural area doesn’t make you immune to this disease, and the virus doesn’t care which party you vote for. However, risk is always a matter of statistical probability, and because the Democratic coalition is so heavily skewed toward urban voters, the outbreak of a contagious disease that spreads most rapidly in high-density communities with public transportation means that Democratic voters are most at risk.
The Other McCain
The question is if the cure is worse than the disease. The village of the damned has collected 200K in fines of ordinary people not sticking to the regulations from that psychopath Andrews (well, he did decide euthanasia is legal)
But Coronavirus is a disease of the rich and fat: the two parts of the progressive coalition, so all must suffer.
We know from our early profiling that our first wave of casualties and carriers was dominated by our inner-urban wealthy elites, regular visitors to western Europe and the ski fields of Japan and the US, along with highly mobile 20-something students living in higher-density urban areas, and backpackers.
Mainstream suburban families — the ones putting up with all the asinine interpretations of hastily cobbled together laws are clean as a whistle, as far as unknown positives are concerned. No wonder they’re getting cranky.
In the states, due to virtue signalling by the progressives in the Clinton Archipelogo, there are highly variable rates of the illness.
[The US decrease in Convid 19] too early to tell for sure, but it's something to hope for.
It also could also simply mean that the virus has finally killed off the stupidest fraction of New York Gilligans. Because another factoid is that this has gone from being "the Chinese disease" to being "the New York Disease".
Because with a population less than half of all of Califrutopia (18M vs. 40M), and occupying a space of only 302.6 square miles (1/4 the size of Rhode Island), NYFC has 1/3 of the total U.S deaths (6,898 deaths out of 22,861 total U.S. deaths), and the entire state of NY has over 1/3 of all U.S. cases (190K out of 561K) cases.
This is somewhat due to population density (and I mean that both ways), not least of which because Governor Fredo and Hizzoner Mayor DeBozo ignored the potential of this disease to spread and kill in the Empire State and the Big Horse Apple. They decided to hold the open-air Chinese New Year festival, with thousands of people thronging to NYFC's Chinatown, with a large number of New Yorkers rubbing shoulders with relatives of visitors and returnees from ChiComia. (Genius-level move, right there.) And because mass transit - to this day - including the NYFC Subways, remain open and operating, and NYFC natives continue to throng Central Park, thus insuring two major infection loci remain productive, and passing the virus on to such a degree that there are more dead in NYFC than there are infected in the entire state of Ohio.
Locally, While visits, including to the ERs hereabouts, continue to run at record lows, our ICU is completely full, 100%, with intubated patients, all with fever and pneumonia. That means until some of them die, any new ones will be managed in the ER and on regular floors, which increases the risks to patients and staff for infection, and limits our availability to absorb and handle any critical patients from any cause.
There may not be one peak to this outbreak. There may instead be 50 peaks.
NYFC, by contrast, is a shell-shocked war zone. Reports from friends of my coworkers there in the middle of the outbreak's hardest hit sections are:
"Everyone is on ventilators, patients are on gurneys in all spaces and hallways, and we can't even tell who's coding, because everyone's alarms are going off all the time."
Once this is over, those people are going to have PTSD for reals, and a lot of them are inevitably going to leave healthcare permanently.
Aesop, Raconteur Report
The Australians are being particularly stupid.
The fractured church
Will notes that the Anabaptists, those radicals who consider that they can live in a community of the righteous without tares or troubles, again, are suffering as the rest of North America from the current virus, and like the rest of us, have had to use alternate ways to fellowship. Which we do, we do. Freeriker comments, about the church
Prediction: “churches” are going to be in for a very unpleasant surprise after this whole artificially-created crisis is over. The surprise? Their members, large numbers of them, won’t be coming back.
1. It is highly likely that in most of these “churches,” out of sight means out of mind. No one is keeping in contact with each other, and I will GUARANTEE you that pastors aren’t keeping in touch with their flocks to provide spiritual guidance, or ever just to make sure everyone is well.
2. The few members of the congregation serious about their faith are finding alternative ways to stay spiritually strong and nourished while in isolation (e.g., daily Bible studies and prayer) that are far superior to anything that their fake, lukewarm, Sunday-morning-only “churches” provide.
3. As a result of numbers 1 and 2, the realization will set in that the “church” has utterly failed in its mission and is therefore irrelevant.
The good news? The fruits of obeying Caesar instead of God will lead to the destruction of Churchianity, Inc. (good riddance to bad rubbish!) and the reformation of the true church from the remnant.
Well, obvious. There are too many churchians out there who are trying to please the people of this world rather than God.
Christians are supposed to follow the truth, and if there is one thing that we have learned over the years, it is that the truth is one thing in which "credible news sources" absolutely do not traffic. They are, in fact, the primary factories of fake news.
You can always tell the Churchian because his primary concern is to avoid looking foolish in the eyes of the world.
I have said this before, but it is worth repeating: the singling out of the church is deliberate.
The media is working hard to make me panic, but I reserve my right as a monarchist not to have an opinion. Even if, suppose, the decision to shut down society was right and prudent this time, what was unimaginable a week ago has happened with no resistance, and a precedent has been set. One doesn’t need corpses in the street to cancel school, outlaw private assembly, and (most ominous of all) for the Mass to be suspended–in many places voluntarily canceled even before being prohibited. Just a month ago, we were all hearing the argument that the movement of peoples is something that is beyond any government’s power to control. Now, it turns out that governments can lock down entire populations. For good or ill, we see that many governments do have this power.
Is the threat of disease really worse now than in Western civilization’s past, when such measures were not taken, or have we re-evaluated our priorities? And if the latter, to what extent will we ever get our sociability and our religion back? Because tens of millions of people will always die each year of something, and new viruses will always be coming along with at least some period of exponential growth. I can imagine a time when we look back on the times before this week and be amazed that once people crowded into buses, churches, concert halls, and sports stadia, that they walked outside without masks and shook strangers’ hands, that they went to public parks and let their children play with strangers’ children. The traditional sociability of Westerners, and the social dimension of Christianity, might come to be seen as irresponsible, something governments, “health experts”, and public opinion have a duty to discourage.
I reserve my right as a reformed Christian to trust in the Spirit, who will bring the Church as a Bride to Christ, refined, pure, and triumphant. These times pass. But not a single stroke of the law or the promises of God will ever be removed.
A few economic predictions
Let's start with one of the doomsters -- Kunstler. He warned us for a decade, and now that the crisis is here, he is not enjoying it. No one is.
Let’s face it: this is a twilight zone between stupor and fury. Nobody is paying anything to anyone. All obligations are suspended: salaries, rents, mortgages, bills, loans, bets, and vigs, all up in the air somewhere, but definitely not moving to their assigned destinations. The velocity of money is zero and all the various new term facilities and structured vehicles conjured by the Federal Reserve and Congress amount to a mere shadow of money moving – even though they are represented by trillions of brand-new alleged dollars. For every ten points that the Standard & Poor’s rose this week, somewhere down the line as many hedge funders will be dribbled like so many basketballs to the hoop of judgment.
The nation now has the long Easter weekend to stew and ruminate over its fate with spring achingly vivid and beckoning beyond the grim, streaked windows of sequestering. Those little cans of Easter Spam with pineapple rings won’t offer much consolation, combined with the abject discovery that even Netflix only has so many sequels to Frozen for children going catatonic with ennui. Kids are generally not so excited by stock and bond markets, but that’s probably where the genuine melodrama picks up on Monday. The weeks ahead there will give the phrase down-to-earth a whole new meaning
As most of the readers here know, Kea is a professional photographer. Getting good photos is not cheap: you are not merely paying for the depreciation on Kea's Nikon, but the two to three hours of post processing each file needs before printing, and the quality assurance she puts into the printing. It does matter. We are planning that her turnover will he half to a third next season -- and the second half of her working season (spring to autumn) is ruined this year. We are both grateful that I'm in the privileged class -- on a salary for a state funded employer. The predictions are bad.
When the time finally comes for Americans to emerge out of their basement bunkers fatter than Hillary Clinton after a wine evening with the ladies? And we’re caught up on all of that “must-see TV” (spoiler: fire insurance is a must if you live in King’s Landing®), what kind of a landscape will they see?
Americans are already getting antsy. It won’t last until August. I don’t think it will last past May.
The economy won’t be the same. Small businesses are in really bad shape. Since they don’t have a lobbyist like Boeing®, that steak house on Main Street? Owned by Ma and Pa Steakhouse owners? They don’t have anyone looking out for them. They’ll get loans, sure. But another loan on top of the mortgage on the restaurant? Another loan on top of the bills they have for the steaks sitting in the freezer because no one is coming in? Yeah.
That’ll help. Just like links from the chain of the anchor would help a lifeboat from the Titanic.
Wilder Wealthy and Wise
This is how one Kiwi Farmer is seeing it -- the milk price will drop further than the current models allow, and therefure.
There will likely be an explosion of consumer demand after the various restrictions are lifted inside nations, but it will be short and sharp. The medium-term demand does not look good as everybody adjusts to a new world. Perhaps they'll be more "preppers" than ever and they'll buy up Whole Milk Powder in vast quantities. 😀
But right now I'm leaning towards the Rabobank analysis, which means the spreadsheets are getting a workout looking two years forward. I'm going to cut spending to the bone:
- Off-farm grazing gone,
- Purchased stock food gone,
- Reduced herd size to allow pure self-sufficiency (but of course that's reduced income)
- R&M only.
That in turn means very tough times coming for all the medium-sized firms that supply us and the people who work for them. I hope they survive.
R&M is repairs and maintenance: since we have a salary (though I'm expecting to be taxed at much higher than the current 39 cents in the dollar) we can do a little bit more. But no new commitments: we are cutting our expenditure. We will not have our side incomes in the near future.
Me? Cashing up and getting rid of debt fast. Spending is down. Way down. From here on, it's cash on the nail, and you bastards better give me a discount.
The now obsolete marketing (Woke is the new Broke)
Captain Capitalism makes a welcome return to these pages, with one of his patented rants about marketing to the minorities. You can think different, but Levi Strauss has jeans for that, and Apple a phone, and Starbucks still sells stale, over roasted, undrinkable coffee.
This disgusting level of corporate virtue signaling should not only annoy everybody, but it should downright piss off minorities for its blatant pandering. Taking issues, that are of no light matter, and issues you may care deeply about, and trivially capitalizing off of them for profit is an insult. And when you take a look at what corporations are really trying to do via their sanctimonious virtue signaling, it’s nothing but simple marketing. They don’t care about your cause. They care about the money you will spend if they say they’re down with your cause. Like your “Asian American Studies” professors, they will tell you whatever you want to hear, just as long as you give them your money.
Unfortunately, this marketing works. Women fork over all their money to become “strong, independent, empowered, bankrupt, women” in college. Snobby, elitist, upper income liberals pay $7 per cup of organic coffee so they can imagine they’re helping “the poor brown people” overseas and aren’t racist. Rich white dudes buy Teslas thinking they’re saving the environment and it will consequently get them laid. Obese people shop at Target thinking they’re promoting diabetes “body positivity.” And young minority men must have thought they were really sticking it to the man, because the Kapernick Air Force 1’s sold out in just one day…netting Nike aka “The Man” at least a cool $1 billion in sales. Imagine if all that money went to STEM degrees instead.
This is all obsolete, because with the expected 10 -- 25% unemployment what will matter to the average woman is that they have a secure home. Anything else will be commentary. The empowered singles will despair, and be cast aside by the corporations. In a time of mistrust, learn from the Chinese: they trust only their clan, and in their clan their family. No, this is not the America of high trust (or the New Zealand) but those rules require that you preserve your culture, not monetize it.
The popular culture meme machine called Marvel went woke, and its dying. Like Vox Day, I expect schools won't survive this move to mandatory home schooling and distance teaching: the driver for mothers going back to work will be that the mortgage (on their soon to be underwater houses) needs to be paid.
We have been enjoying, in our house, the recent "lockdown" series of Nadia Lim's cooking: it is simple, traditional, flexible, aimed so her toddlers can eat it, and done simply: her husband is the cameraman, and there is no crew. I'm not sure if these are available outside of New Zealand, and I know that Kea looks at them, reminds me that either I can't eat that or she can't, but we appreciate the educational value of such. When our kids were young we ate that way. I approve of Scott's attitude: get on with building -- it took our government to shut the construction industry just as the autumn storms arrived to soak any house that was not a completed shell.
Elspeth has two good posts this week. She observes her husband -- and I'd agree with what he says.
Elspeth's blog has to be accessed via WordPress reader, which is a pity, because she generally speaks truth. She would never allow anyone to say she's perfect.
I’ve mentioned this before but was reminded of it again after walking in on the tail end of a lengthy phone counseling session between SAM and a protégé. It occurred to me how much of the counsel being offered was -or should have been- garden variety. A culture which prize feelings above all would undoubtedly find his advice to this young man offensive:
- When you’re wrong and you know it, apologize sincerely, but stop the groveling. You’re sending the wrong message.
- If she says she wants or doesn’t want something and doesn’t mean it, call her bluff. Every time. Don’t help her perfect the habit of lying.
- The pattern you set now is a precedent set when you marry. Is this how you want to start your life together? [my husband is BIG on precedents and patterns]
- Stop allowing her to use your actions to justify her wrong behavior, and don’t ever use her actions to justify any of your wrong behavior.
- Women play on your emotions and hit you where it hurts when everything else is failing. Don’t get sucked into that. You’re getting distracted from the real issue.
None of this offends me even when I am on the receiving end of it. I suspect it’s because I don’t come from a family dynamic where love was treated as synonymous with coddling. Love was patient and love was kind, but it also insisted on truth. This is also a bedrock principle in our home. Tell the truth- to yourself and to each other. It underscores every piece of advice I have ever heard my husband dispense.
Elspeth, Things I wish I had known sooner
More truth: same place. As someone who struggles with weight (we both do) can bloody confirm. The only good thing about this lockdown is we can't get junk food -- the bad thing is that when we are bored, we eat, and do not do One decent meal a day and fast.
The quintessential dingbat Alexandria Occasio Cortez made news recently by crying racism in response to the revelation that coronavirus hospitalizations are disproportionately affecting black and brown communities. Her banal commentary is well known by now so I’ll spare you the quotes.
However, as Garvey’s Ghost pointed out, this really isn’t about racism as much as it is about obesity as comorbidity and its connection to the other diseases and disorders that make coronavirus victims more vulnerable.
Well, yeah. It's winter now, a month early, and that means that Kea's favourite walk -- a steep 275m climb to the ridge behind our house -- will be slippery and difficult. You have to be adaptable -- do what you can, and watch what you eat. Particularly when you are stressed, and with three generations in lockdown together, stress happens.
That is it, folks
I am dealing with a government that will not release the advice it has from the crown law office on this lockdown. A decision on extending this will happen on Monday. There is a limit to goodwill.
I should be a good monarchist like Bonald, but we have progressive, globalist, republicans running the show. Not as if the republic will stand.
Peter Grant, who has lived through a fair amount of turmoil in Africa, notes.
Be very clear, at the peak of the Syrian Civil War, the total number of combatants on all sides only numbered 2% or less of the population on a per capita basis. We have 1% new gun owners alone, a national gun ownership rate around 30%, and a projected number of Red or Blue tribal goons who support terrorism to be up around the 15% range before COVID-19 entered the picture ... Put simply, the Red Tribe / Blue Tribe cultural divide in the United States is thicker than mid-20th century racism. We have all the dehumanization we need for a civil war, and all the gear. We’re just not motivated yet.
This is a time of crisis and turmoil. Stay away from crowds. Speak truth: within the bubbles of social distancing we have freedom to say what you want. The current elite are facing the loss of their multigenerational progressive, globohomo, project. It will fail. Do not prop it up.
And do not be like them.