A series of things I found in the papers today. I’m now avoiding the NZ Herald, who decided to publish a church’s tax returns as if giving to the church is a scandal. They are going bankrupt, woke article by lie, issue, by issue.
The woke worm is turning
The new inclusion rules for movies are going to make the Oscars as big a trainwreck as the Hugos. Any movie worth watching won’t follow them. We did watch a movie last night: the Lake House, a romantic drama. No car chases. Everyone kept their kit on. Significant emotional impact. It was made 14 years ago, and was old-fashioned then. Things have got worse, and I expect Hollywood to be taken out by the Chinese, who cannot write a plot to save themselves.
After the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced new representation and inclusion standards for future Best Picture eligibility, the actress took to Twitter on Tuesday, September 8 to sound off on the news.
“This is a disgrace to artists everywhere,” she wrote in a since-deleted tweet. “Can you imagine telling Picasso what had to be in his f…ing paintings…You people have lost your minds. Control artists, control individual thought .. OSCAR ORWELL.”
The Cheers alum slammed the requirements as “dictatorial” and “anti-artist” as she continued sharing her unfiltered opinion. “I’ve been in the motion picture Academy for 40 years. The Academy celebrates freedom of UNBRIDLED artistry expressed through movies,” she tweeted. “The new RULES to qualify for ‘best picture’ are dictatorial .. anti-artist..Hollywood you’re swinging so far left you’re bumping into your own a–.”
The actress defended herself in response to Ava DuVernay, who tweeted a GIF to Alley of Denzel Washington closing a door on someone.
“But I ask you to explore my record of diversity & inclusion in anything I’ve produced & throughout my life,” Alley told her. “I’m not perfect but have fought for human & civil rights for 50 years. I just don’t agree w mandated, impossible to ‘police’ quotas as a prerequisite 4 a ‘best’ picture.”
What happens in NZ is that people look at the polls — the latest UMR poll has Labour 53% National 29% ACT 6% and non one else over 5% — is because we have MMP, and the percentage party vote is what matters. That is not the case in the USA. It is electoral votes that count. Stacey gives us foreigners a tutorial.
One of the ways the media mislead America is with polls. The old phrase, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” should be amended to include public opinion polls, especially national polls in presidential campaigns. To state the fact as simply as possible, national polls are irrevelant in terms of projecting the final result, because what actually matters is the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016, but her national margin (about 2.9 million votes) was less than her margin in California alone (about 4.3 million votes). In other words, the massive pro-Clinton advantage in California created a lopsided margin nationwide. Hillary got 8.8 million votes in California, 4.6 million in New York, and 3.1 million votes in Illinois. These three states thus accounted for nearly 25% of Clinton’s total vote (65.9 million). Her combined margin over Trump in these states was 7 million. Her margin of victory in California was about 30 percentage points, 22.5 points in New York, and 17 points in Illinois. If you’re looking at national polls, you see, the horse-race number doesn’t reflect how the Electoral College turns out. It doesn’t matter if a presidential candidate wins Florida by a 1-point margin or a 30-point margin, the winner still gets all the Electoral College votes in Florida.
So the alleged “fact” that Joe Biden leads President Trump by 7.1 points in the Real Clear Politics average of national polls is not only absurd (no serious political observer believes Biden will win by such a landslide margin), but it is also irrelevant. The election will be decided in a comparative handful of “swing” states, and what it is important is to identify the states that actually are up for grabs this year.
Of course, it’s still eight weeks to go until Election Day, we don’t actually know which way the momentum might shift. One campaign or the other could collapse between now and Nov. 3, or events outside the campaigns could shift the race, so it is impossible to predict outcomes. As things stand today, however, you can scratch Iowa from the list of so-called “battleground” states. Iowa went for Obama twice, but it’s Trump Country now, and the Biden campaign isn’t wasting any energy there.
What about Georgia? Because Stacey Abrams came so close two years ago — a “high tide” year for Democrats — some have tried to claim that Georgia is a battleground. Bullshit. The latest poll has Trump leading by 7 points in Georgia, and it probably won’t be that close.
North Carolina? In late July, the RCP average of North Carolina polls had Biden up by nearly 5 points, but it’s now virtually tied and trending toward Trump. I never believed Biden had much chance in North Carolina, and am dubious of those who call it a “battleground.” The Antifa riots have probably hurt Biden badly there, and I’d be surprised if it’s even close. On the other hand, I am worried about Ohio. Biden has led 8 of the last 10 polls there, and although the RCP average for Ohio has Biden leading by less than 3 points (margin of error territory), clearly Trump has a fight on his hands there. This is the one I’ll be watching most closely. Whoever wins Ohio will be president.
What about Florida? I’ve got family there — in a heavily Republican area, full of rich retirees — and Trump was leading Florida in the spring before his numbers took a dip because of COVID-19, but he’s recovered his momentum now. The latest Florida poll has it tied, and the most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Biden had lost 10 points in the span of barely a month. The reasons for that sudden meltdown are almost certainly due to (a) the lousy Democratic convention performance, and (b) the ongoing “mostly peaceful protests.” You know who doesn’t want to hear a lot of angry lectures about “systemic racism” in America? Cubans.
Cubans have a low tolerance for that crap, and they sure as heck don’t want to hear any of your Marxist revolutionary nonsense:
Yeah. We have our revolutionaries. Kiwis take note. The Greens have to be kicked out, or they will tax the living crap out of anyone who earns. Up to about 300K we pay more tax than Oz already, and we (COVID allowing) have free entry to OZ. People will do cash jobs and work privately so they can ramp their deductions up plus negative gear in the Greens get near the tax regulations. We have, in addition to this. GST>
If you want to stimulate the economy, cut the GST which means that the poor will be able to get more things they need. Like food. For non Kiwis, GST is charged on everything, including food.
The Troll of the day
God bless the Norwegians. They know how to annoy the Eurocrats. However, I would not put any money on Trump getting the Peace Prize: he is antiprogressive and anti globalist, and therefore effective. This cannot be allowed to stand by the elite.
A Norwegian lawmaker has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for 2021 for helping broker a deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the second time he has put forward the U.S. president for the honour.
Thousands of people are eligible to nominate candidates for the Nobel Peace Prize, including members of parliaments and governments, university professors and past laureates.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee, which decides on the award from among several hundred nominations made every year, declined to comment.
“It is for his contribution for peace between Israel and the UAE. It is a unique deal,” Christian Tybring-Gjedde, a member of parliament for the right-wing Progress Party, told Reuters.
The White House in a statement said the Abraham Accords, as the deal is known, gave cause for optimism in the Middle East.
“This peace deal is a testament to the bold diplomacy and vision of President Trump, and he is honored to be considered by the Nobel Committee,” the White House said.
Trump has been unable to negotiate a deal between Israel and the Palestinians, however, and a peace plan he proposed in January that heavily favoured the Israelis has not advanced in any significant way.
Tybring-Gjedde, who nominated Trump for the 2019 award for his diplomatic efforts with North Korea, said the latest nomination was also made because of the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq.
Otago Daily Times
This is offending the woke, because the support of Trump — even in NZ, where we can’t vote for him, or support him — is beyond the pale.
While you’d never believe it from their Twitter supporters, New Zealand’s major parties are fairly moderate so it’s often easy to agree to disagree with someone who votes differently from you. We’re reasonable people after all. (Not you, Twitter supporters.)
Despite that, there’re some minor parties with policies so divisive they’re worthy of being friendship-ending; seriously, if there’s a New Conservative Party supporter hiding within my friend group I demand you reveal yourself now.
There’s a practical reason for knowing who people vote for, a sort of no surprises’ policy so you’re not blindsided later. Even if it is rude to ask, isn’t it better to find out now rather than later that this seemingly excellent person you’ve just met actually supports something or someone horrific?
Neither my friend nor I can vote for or against Trump, but it’s more than that. Trump’s words and actions, or lack thereof, have ensured he’s not a politician but a character test, a way to measure what we’ll stand for, Perhaps we shouldn’t be asking who someone voted for in New Zealand but who they’d vote for in the US.
Another quick ask-around of friends revealed we all voted differently at the last election and were planning to do the same in a few weeks. The only thing that mattered was who we wouldn’t vote for if we could.
As for my Trump-supporting mate, nigh on 30 years of friendship ended a few weeks ago. We’d partied and protested and performed together but it turns out I never knew her at all.
When it comes to asking either who someone votes for or who they’d like to vote for, perhaps it’s not that it’s rude to ask, perhaps it’s just better not to know.
FWIW, Stuff was recently valued at $1. That is what the management paid to buy it out and assume the debt the newspapers that make up Stuff had.
Homeschool or die
I commented on how Church Schools are fully bought into the rancid rainbow this morning. It appears the kids in school in the USA are used as victims in shooting LARP training for cops, who are shocked that the kids can’t cope. That is what rifle ranges are for, which should be off limits for little kids and optional for older ones.
If you have small kids, get into the country, buy crap land, homeschool the kids, and one of you get a job in the local town. Small towns need skilled people. The fuel cost will be less than a mortgage in a big city, and your kids won’t come home traumatized.
The social engineers and idiots are running everything, as shown on Pravda One.
The Education Review Office stated after a 2017 evaluation that while biology and puberty was well covered, teaching of consent, healthy relationships and the impact of social media and pornography needed be covered in more detail.
The new guidelines have a focus on those areas, as well as gender inclusivity, sexuality guidance for Māori, Pasifika and disabled students and guidance on how to make schools inclusive.
The guidance includes unisex toilets, not separating class activities into groups based on “boys” and “girls” and including gender-neutral uniform options.
In 2018, the Education Review Office reported less than a fifth of schools taught sexuality education very well and the curriculum was being delivered inconsistently.
Onslow College Student Fiona Bogunovic said sexuality classes needed to include more about sexuality for non-heterosexual people.
“It becomes easier to take that sexual education from other sources like the Internet and that can sometimes be unreliable,” she said.
“Issues around transgender people, I think that’s an issue that wasn’t really covered in our curriculum,” fellow student Sam Grantham said.
Simon Armstrong said what was taught when he received sexuality education at the college was “very much about how confident the teachers felt at the time”.
Principal Sheena Millar welcomed the new guidelines and said all schools can improve their inclusivity and sexuality education.
“Society changes and students change and we need to be prepared to change with them and grow with them and learn from them,” Millar said.
Family Planning chief executive Jackie Edmond also welcomed the guidelines but said without being compulsory, young people will continue to not be well-served.
Homeschool. It is the only way to keep the rainbow away from your kids when they are dealing with the chaos of puberty, school bullying, and social shaming. Besides, you can cover most of the curriculum in the morning, then spend the rest of the day working on the farm, perfecting your form on the mountain bike, ski slope or in the surf, and manage to get some decent music practice done. Just keep the kids away from social media. It is now toxic.