Its Demographics, Baby.

There is an odd sort called Harry Dent. He’s spend his entire life making outrageous claims depending on where the life phase of the Boomer Generation is at. At the moment he’s thinking we are not merely in a bubble, but the crash that will come is going to be yuge.

The delusional among us think this crash is only a black swan, caused by the spread of the coronavirus. While the coronavirus is a true black swan, it is also causing the Perfect Shock! The truth is the economy is massively overstimulated right now, and adding cushion won’t stop the effects of the virus any more than it will stop the inevitable crash, which would have come anyway, virus or no.

HS Dent.

I was talking with a guy who cleans windows at Casa Weka. He said that in the 1980s he took four loans to buy a 25K house. Even paying a mortgage at 16%, a second mortgage and personal loans they were saving compared to rent. He did, like many Kiwi boomers, the property investment thing. He has now divested, and is cashed up. The local regulations for rentals — with warrants of fitness and significant difficulties with evicting tenants — mean that most people of his generation are walking away. Dent would say that they are now in the 70s, and this is predictable. He would also add that the echo boom (the Millenials) was small compared with the post war procreation. Less people means less marriages, less

What I think matters as much as these secular changes are the differentiation between those who have faith and are conservative and those who do not. The graph below is from the US Institute of family studes and the first thing to note is that the number unmarried adults over 25 has increased markedly from less than 10% on average to about a third of adults.

From the IPS authors:

Looking at religion and ideology together, it is clear that liberal, non-religious Americans are most likely to have never been married. This was the case in the 1970s as well as in the 2010s. Between 2000 and 2018, nearly 40% of non-religious liberals had never been married, compared with 18% of religious and conservative Americans.  On the other side, Americans who are religious and conservative are the least likely to be single. Even though all groups have experienced a rise in the share of never marrieds, the gap between non-religious liberals and religious conservatives increased from 12 percentage points in the 1970s to 21 percentage points in the 2010s.

Institute for Family Studies

This means that many less liberal women will have kids: will need a big house with a yard, will have to deal with their husband’s frailties and illnesses. They may be in serial relationships, but they are more likely to end up alone. In the USA there is a moderate high rate of women having children out of wedlock: in New Zealand is is so high among the liberals that our Prime Minister and first bloke would walk down the aisle preceded by their child.

This matters for economic behaviour. The number of Baby shops and kids shops is dropping. Doggie day care and grooming is booming. And this is not working well for women.

Yes, a real New Yorker Cover.

If you look at what is happening right now, house prices are going crazy. The interest rates banks are offering are going through the floor. The government knows that most people in New Zealand have but one asset, their home, and they monitor property values. Increase values mean you can monetize this by remortgaging. That means people can buy new toys.

What our leaders forget is that if young women (men are systemically failing in New Zealand due to our doofus policies) are secular, credentialled, and as a consequence woke, they often (a) stop caring for themselves due to feminist body positivity (b) seek the minority of men who are more credentialled and remain masculine (c) don’t want kids in their 20s when their body is designed for childbirth and raising small ones.

They find themselves “making the landing” with a man who is either less qualified than them and has some masculinity — “Tradies get the ladies” — with a qualified soyboy who has much testosterone as a plastic duck. They are now older, and less likely to have kids.

So the schools are full of those women who had kids early, often impulsively, from poorer parts of town.

Or those icky Christian girls who took one look at the current feminist trajectory of life and ran as fast as they could in the other direction. Note that group are the people who are getting married. And in my church, when they have kids, everyone is happy. Everyone supports them.

The trouble is those icky Christian girls are going to make the next generation of people who will maintain this society. Unless the education system gets them and ruins them.

But the secular education system is not merely an IQ shredder. It makes people miserable, and decreases the ability for families to function.

So, at present:

  • If you are young and of Christ, live in a church flat and get involved in the church. Men, choose your GF with intentions and be the best man of God you can be. Women, choose a godly man who you look up to.
  • Get the credentials you need to survive. A PhD or Master’s degree is not one of those.
  • Live on one income. Save the other
  • Minimise your expenditure on housing. Live in shared flats, when married rent a studio apartment: when having children move to the country or exurbs where there is less of a property bubble.
  • Homeschool.
  • When the kids leave home, downsize, and use the capital to fund your pension and/or help the kids do the same thing.

This is the old way of doing things. The old ways work.

But this over credentialled state system? It is fragile. And with a good economic depression, it will fall, leaving the minions within it alone, homeless and bereft of hope.

Despite their convergence and virtue signals and degrees.

Do not be like them.

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Heresolong
1 month ago

Bruce, there are churches but they are Progressive. Perhaps that is what you meant. I grew up in the Brethren. As conservative as can be. I have considered going back but every church I look at (at least anywhere within Sunday morning commuting distance) has gone full woke. Aside from moving somewhere based on its local Brethren chapel (now that I think about it, perhaps this should be added to my criterion list).

Your mileage will vary but… either go Calvinist (Grace Presbyterian in NZ) or what Hearthrose calls Bapticostal: the fundamentalist theology without dispensationalism and with the gifts of the Spirit. I walked from a church four years ago when the old bugger running it left and the wimmen got in and wokened it

bruce charlton
bruce charlton
1 month ago

This is the old way of doing things. The old ways work.”

The old ways worked better than the new – but the old ways led to the new. And returning to the old ways is a very different matter from unconsciously absorbing them in a society where there was no alternative.

Why did the old ways change – what drove it, ultimately? I think it was because people changed, human consciousness changed – this led to the social changes (industrial revolution, bureaucracy etc) which amplified the psychological changes.

It took three generations of anthchristian propaganda. We sowed the wind. This is the whirlwind

But a separate point. “live in a church flat and get involved in the church.” – But there are no churches anymore. They are mostly closed and/ or have (all but) ceased their core activities. And they did so willingly, enthusiastically – revealing that they were already deeply corrupt.

We must do the necessary either ourselves, or – if we are fortunate – with a spouse and perhaps a few other close family. All the world of organisations – including the ex-churches – are either against us, or so feebly on our side as to be incipient traitors.

This applies to all external authority. e.g. If you want to base your life on The Bible, you yourself will need to discern which Bible (from the hundreds available, with significant differences) and how to interpret it (given that all the ‘authorities’ – historical, linguistic, archeological etc. are corrupted by secular attitudes).